Business investment is shrinking. This year, the US economic growth will slow down or become a foregone conclusion.

　　A recent survey shows that the economic confidence of small businesses in the United States has dropped to a seven-year low, and the investment of American enterprises has also shrunk. In addition, many indicators such as the recession of American manufacturing industry and the decline of consumer confidence have once again sounded the alarm for the American economy. According to the analysis, due to the impact of trade policy and its uncertainty on the US economy, and the stimulating effect of tax reduction policy has basically disappeared, the US economic growth will slow down or become a foregone conclusion this year.

　　Business confidence dropped to the lowest level in seven years.

　　On Monday, local time, a monthly survey of more than 670 small businesses nationwide by American polling agencies showed that the economic confidence of small businesses fell to the lowest level since November 2012 in August. The proportion of respondents who expect the economy to deteriorate in the next 12 months will rise to 40%, compared with 29% in July and 23% a year ago.

　　According to a survey conducted by Vistage Worldwide, an American executive training institution, 45% of small businesses said that the current US trade policy would affect their business. The analysis holds that the uncertainty of American trade policy increases the cost and uncertainty of small enterprises, which will make their production planning very difficult, damage their business and reduce their expectations of the American economy. Richard, an economist at the University of Michigan, analyzed Vistage’s data and said: "For small companies, this means being more cautious in investment and recruitment plans."

　　Last week, the data of the monthly rate of durable goods orders in July released by the United States showed that the initial value of the monthly rate of orders was actually announced by 2.1%, but the initial value of the monthly rate of transportation durable goods orders was actually announced by -0.4% in July, which showed that the US shipments in July showed the biggest decline in the past three years. Overall business investment declined in the second quarter of this year, which was the first time since the first quarter of 2016. Some analysts worry that the chain effect may become more and more obvious. In the short term, the company will reduce recruitment, which in turn will damage consumer confidence, and in the long run, it may affect productivity growth.

　　Another report released by the Chicago Fed last week also reinforced the expectation of slowing economic growth. According to the report, the US economic activity index dropped to -0.36 in July from 0.03 in June. According to the Chicago Fed, negative readings are usually accompanied by below-average economic growth. The Chicago Fed’s economic activity index turned negative, and the corporate investment released by the US Department of Commerce showed signs of shrinking in July, all indicating that the uncertainty of trade has penetrated into the real economic activities in the United States.

　　Lydia Boussour, a senior American analyst at Oxford Economic Research Institute, said that the expectation that corporate investment confidence will shrink will not change. Although corporate spending on equipment has increased, weak corporate investment and idle inventory will drag down US manufacturing and GDP data. In the next few months, the tightening financial environment, increasing trade uncertainty and deteriorating global economic growth will put pressure on investment decision-making and make the already fragile investment prospects of enterprises face further downside risks.

　　Economic recession signals are frequent.

　　According to the latest statistics released by IHS Market on August 22nd, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of American manufacturing industry fell to 49.9 in August, which was the first time that it fell below 50 threshold in ten years. Because manufacturing PMI is a key economic indicator to measure the expansion and contraction of a country’s manufacturing industry, it shows that the manufacturing PMI of the United States has entered a shrinking state for the first time in the past decade, and it also adds new warning to the American economy that has frequently warned of recession recently.

　　Lise Sunders, chief investment strategist of charles schwab Company in the United States, said that because the trend of manufacturing industry is ahead of consumption and other fields, she predicted that the prospect of manufacturing industry in the United States is likely to continue to deteriorate, and the weak momentum is likely to spread to the service industry in the United States. The data released by IHS Market Company on the same day also showed that the PMI of the US service industry dropped sharply from 53 in July to 50.9 in August, a three-month low. Michael Kantor Rowitz, chief investment strategist of Cornerstone Macro, warned: "When the PMI of the service industry falls below 50, the recession will come." Ian Shepardson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics Research Company, believes that the manufacturing industry accounts for only about 12% of the current American economy, so the recession of manufacturing industry alone is not enough to drag the American economy into recession. However, it is worth worrying that once the weak momentum of manufacturing spreads to the service industry, the risk of economic recession in the United States will greatly increase.

　　Moreover, concerns about the macroeconomic situation and financial markets have begun to affect the future consumption expectations of American consumers. According to the latest data, the consumer confidence index of the American Chamber of Commerce in August dropped from 135.8 last month to 135.1, and the consumer expectation index dropped from 112 to 107. According to data released by the University of Michigan recently, the consumer confidence index of the United States dropped from 98.4 last month to 89.8, the biggest monthly decline since December 2012. The analysis pointed out that since August, American consumer confidence has suffered a heavy setback, which has brought more hidden worries to the slowing American economy.

　　Personal consumption expenditure accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, which is the main engine driving the U.S. economic growth and the key pillar for maintaining the stability of the U.S. market confidence. However, the analysis pointed out that the US trade policy has repeatedly led to the reduction of consumer spending in the United States, and consumer confidence is being eroded. Now this impetus is gradually weakening, and the negative impact on the American economy is self-evident. In addition, some recent data show that the growth rate of personal income in the United States shows signs of slowing down. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, personal income in the United States increased by 0.1% in July, the smallest increase since September last year, and significantly slower than the growth rate of 0.5% in June. In addition, personal savings also fell from 1.32 trillion US dollars in June to 1.27 trillion US dollars, the lowest level since November 2018. This also makes analysts more worried about the US consumption prospects in the coming months.

　　Slow growth or a foregone conclusion

　　According to the revised data released by the US Department of Commerce recently, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States increased by 2% at an annual rate in the second quarter of this year, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than the first estimated data previously released. Analysts believe that due to the impact of trade policy and its uncertainty on the US economy, and the stimulating effect of tax cuts has basically disappeared, the US economic growth will slow down or become a foregone conclusion this year. It is estimated that the annual growth rate will be about 2.5%, which is lower than the 3% growth target set by the government.

　　Ratner, a former adviser to the US Treasury Department, pointed out that there are growing concerns about the US economy or falling into recession. Although the U.S. government mainly blamed the economic slowdown on the Fed’s interest rate hike, in fact, the Fed’s interest rate hike is not large and interest rates are still at an extremely low level in history.

　　He believes that the obvious slowdown in US economic growth is largely due to US trade policy. Worried about the prospects of economic growth, the capital investment of American enterprises has stopped growing, and even declined slightly recently. In particular, the output of the manufacturing industry has been falling and falling into a technical recession, which shows that business confidence is weakening. Ratner also quoted JPMorgan Chase’s forecast that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States may increase by only 1.8% in 2019. In addition, according to Reuters’s recent survey of private economists, the median forecast of American economy falling into recession in the next two years is as high as 45%.