Why did Suga Yoshihide choose Vietnam+Indonesia in his first visit to Southeast Asia instead of the United States？
At around 18: 00 local time on 18th (19: 00 Beijing time on 18th), Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide arrived in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, by special plane to start his first overseas visit since taking office. Suga Yoshihide stopped and waited when he walked out of the cabin, followed by his wife Kan Zhenzi, who was wearing a small fragrant coat and a blue dress. After bowing, they smiled and walked down the gangway, and the local people greeted him with flags of Vietnam and Japan.
Eight years ago, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Vietnam and Indonesia for the first time, Suga Yoshihide, as Abe’s confidant, made the same choice again. After visiting Vietnam, he will also visit Indonesia and finally return to Japan on the 21st. "The purpose of this visit is to build a trust relationship with the two countries and continue to promote ‘ A Brief Introduction to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific ’ （FOIP）。” Suga Yoshihide indicated his intention to focus on "Indo-Pacific".
Although the four-day overseas visit is regarded as the "touchstone" of Suga Yoshihide’s foreign policy, Masahisa Sato, president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party’s internal and external affairs department, told the Japan Times that it was too early to sum up Suga Yoshihide’s diplomatic principles from his first visit.
A "big step" in Japan-Vietnam security field
On the morning of 19th, Suga Yoshihide held talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Ruan Chunfu. According to the news agency, after the summit meeting between the two countries, they said at a press conference: "We have reached an agreement in principle on defense equipment and technology transfer, which is a big step for the two countries in the security field."
On October 19th, 2020, local time, in Hanoi, Vietnam, Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide visited Vietnam, and then held talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Ruan Chunfu and held a press conference. People’s visual map
Restricted by post-war international law, the Japanese government has established the "Three Principles of Arms Export" and completely banned arms export. For a long time, Japan repeatedly broke and relaxed the ban until April 2014, when Abe’s cabinet adopted the "Three Principles of Defence Equipment Transfer", which greatly relaxed the conditions for exporting Japanese weapons and military technology. South Korea’s "Central Daily News" article pointed out that after Japan abandoned the "Three Principles of Arms Export", it planned to conclude relevant agreements with Indonesia and Thailand to seek to expand arms exports to Southeast Asian countries.
Regarding the agreement reached between Japan and Vietnam on defense equipment that day, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato refused to disclose what defense equipment it was at a regular press conference on the 19th, but stressed that the agreement was not targeted at specific countries and regions. According to a report by Reuters on the 19th, some diplomatic and defense experts believe that in order to deepen cooperation in the field of maritime security, Japan may provide the Vietnamese army with defense equipment of the Self-Defense Forces. Earlier, Japanese media said that Japan may export surface combat equipment such as maritime patrol boats, maritime patrol aircraft, radar and surveillance equipment, communication and information systems to Vietnam.
In addition, during the talks, Suga Yoshihide mentioned that Japanese imports of masks and medical supplies from relevant countries were blocked during the COVID-19 epidemic, and hoped to cooperate with ASEAN to strengthen supply chain construction, and both sides agreed to restart short-term business personnel exchanges that were stagnant due to the epidemic.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the talks between the leaders of Japan and Vietnam on the 19th lasted about one hour. Suga Yoshihide said that Japan has been promoting the "free and open Indo-Pacific strategy" and hopes that all countries including ASEAN countries will actively participate. Ruan Chunfu expressed his willingness to cooperate with Japan.
It is worth mentioning that the two sides also exchanged views on the South China Sea issue. Suga Yoshihide said that efforts must be made to peacefully resolve disputes based on international law, and the two countries agreed to strengthen cooperation to maintain order in the South China Sea. On the South China Sea issue, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded many times before. At a regular press conference on July 14th this year, Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that according to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea reached by China and ASEAN countries in 2002, China has always been committed to resolving territorial and jurisdictional disputes with directly related sovereign countries through negotiation and consultation, and to jointly safeguarding peace and stability in the South China Sea with ASEAN countries. At present, with the joint efforts of China and ASEAN countries, the situation in the South China Sea is generally stable.
A visit to Indonesia in the wave of protests
After the talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Ruan Chunfu, Suga Yoshihide will go to Indonesia and hold talks with Indonesian President Joko on 19th. However, the "risk" of Suga Yoshihide’s visit to Indonesia at this time is not small: on the one hand, the COVID-19 epidemic in Indonesia is at its peak. On October 18, the number of newly confirmed cases exceeded 400, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases has exceeded 360,000, which is the most serious epidemic in ASEAN; On the other hand, the wave of protests against the new labor law in Indonesia has intensified.
The Japanese Broadcasting Association (NHK) said on the 18th that during Suga Yoshihide’s visit, Indonesian protesters were preparing to hold tens of thousands of demonstrations near the government office building, and the local police had stepped up their vigilance. Hundreds of people have been arrested in the country after violent clashes between protesters and police.
As the largest economy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia expects more economic input from Japan. According to the latest data from the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), as of January this year, there were 1,489 Japanese enterprises in Indonesia, and Japan’s local investment in 2019 reached 4.31 billion yen (about 274 million yuan), second only to the investment in Singapore and China. Before Suga Yoshihide’s visit, Indonesia held an online investment forum for Japanese businessmen on October 14th, aiming at attracting more Japanese investment.
According to NHK analysis, for Japan, Indonesia plays a central role in the security and economic fields in the region in the context of the ongoing disputes in the surrounding waters. As an archipelagic country spanning the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia put forward the "Indo-Pacific Cooperation Concept" to link the two oceans, and promoted ASEAN to adopt the "ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook", which played an important role in promoting Japan’s "free and open Indo-Pacific strategy".
Before his visit, Suga Yoshihide said in a telephone conversation with Indonesian President Joko on October 13th that he would strengthen his strategic partnership with Indonesia, promote cooperation in infrastructure construction and maritime security, and hoped that Indonesia would give support to the issue of "North Korea kidnapping Japanese". Jakarta Post commented on the 16th that the bilateral policy dialogue mechanism established by Japan and Indonesia is particularly important at this time, and the two sides should also expand the scope of dialogue, not just between government officials.
Why do you prefer Vietnam and Indonesia?
It is worth noting that the United States is Japan’s only ally, and the destination of Japanese prime minister’s first overseas visit after World War II is usually the United States, which reflects the diplomatic policy of Japan and the United States. However, Suga Yoshihide did not choose the United States as the first country to visit, which seems to be contrary to the norm, but it is reasonable.
The US presidential election is just around the corner, the election situation of Trump and Biden is still unclear, and the COVID-19 epidemic is raging, and the White House has not been spared. At this time, Suga Yoshihide’s visit to the United States is obviously not the best choice. Although Suga Yoshihide himself didn’t go to the United States, in terms of diplomatic etiquette, Japan didn’t neglect the United States at all. Abe called Trump immediately after he announced his resignation, and Suga Yoshihide called Trump four days after he took office. During the two phone calls, the two prime ministers repeatedly emphasized the importance of the Japan-US alliance. In addition, during the meeting of foreign ministers of Japan, the United States, India and Australia held in Tokyo on October 6th, Suga Yoshihide and visiting Pompeo held separate talks for 15 minutes, which was the first face-to-face meeting with senior foreign officials since Prime Minister Kan took office.
The United States can’t go, so were China and South Korea, neighbors of East Asia, on the list of Suga Yoshihide’s first visit? "Japan Times" pointed out that under the current situation, neither China nor South Korea can become the first choice of the Japanese Prime Minister, especially because Japan and South Korea are deadlocked due to forced labor in World War II, and the agenda of the China-Japan-ROK summit meeting scheduled to be held in Seoul this year has not been finalized.
Suga Yoshihide has made it clear that the purpose of his trip to Southeast Asia is to continue to promote the "free and open Indo-Pacific strategy", which was put forward by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016. Since then, Japan has placed more diplomatic strategic resources in the "Indo-Pacific" region. Since 2017, Japan has participated in multinational joint exercises in the Indo-Pacific region every year, thereby strengthening its construction support and security cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.
Suga Yoshihide has been committed to promoting the above strategy since he took office, which shows his attitude of inheriting Abe’s foreign policy. When he was elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party, he said, "It is my mission to inherit Prime Minister Abe’s policy and move on." Asahi Shimbun said on the 18th that ASEAN is the hub of Indo-Pacific region, and it is impossible to continue to promote FOIP without the assistance of ASEAN countries. The Japanese Prime Minister’s visit will help to maintain and strengthen Japan’s influence in Southeast Asia, and at the same time, promoting FOIP is also a situation that the United States hopes to see.
The selection of Vietnam and Indonesia among Southeast Asian countries also has ulterior motives. Jeff Kingston, head of the Asian Studies Department of Temple University in Japan, told VOA that Vietnam and Indonesia are very important Southeast Asian countries in terms of Japan’s diplomatic relations. The former is the rotating presidency of ASEAN in 2020, and the latter has a population of 267 million. "Especially after the four foreign ministers’ meeting in Tokyo, the relationship between Japan and the two countries has become more geopolitical."
For Southeast Asian countries, Japan is very popular because of its large amount of financial assistance and investment. The South China Morning Post commented that countries in this region may consider putting their bets on Japan when trying to balance their relations with China and the United States. (The Paper reporter Chen Yuhan)