In many people’s impression, western food represents advanced food, and it costs a lot of money to eat a meal.

But there is a restaurant that completely breaks the price barrier.

When you come here and open the menu, you can’t help but exclaim: this is too cheap.

Especially in the face of the rising high prices around, it is unbelievable to look at more than a dozen pieces of pasta on the menu.

Don’t forget that this is still a first-tier city. .

This is the charm of Italian restaurant Saizeriya, which will always impress you with its price.

Compared with other fast food restaurants, Saizeriya is different.

Someone looked up the menu of Saizeriya in 1990s and found that the price more than 20 years ago was twice as expensive as it is now.

In the past 17 years since its opening, Saizeriya has taken a civilian route, focusing on low prices, which has become the western food enlightenment for many children in China.

But Saizeriya’s low price can’t be achieved overnight, and there’s a lot of brain behind it.

Western food "Shaxian snack"

The first time I went to Saizeriya, it was difficult to combine the "Italian restaurant" on the signboard with the rough decoration and humble location.

But when you go in and eat before you come out, no one can escape the law of "real fragrance"

A frequent visitor to Saizeriya said:

I always thought I liked Italian food, until I traveled around Italy last year, only to find out that I only liked Saizeriya.

So popular, knife elder brother summed up two reasons.

1. There has been no price increase for twenty years.

Looking through Saizeriya’s menu, you will find a fact: How has it not changed much in the past twenty years!

Seeing that milk tea has changed from a few dollars to 20 or even 30, Saizeriya still looks so kind.

Unlimited refills for drinks of eight yuan each;

You can eat all kinds of pasta for more than ten yuan, which is much more cost-effective than cooking at home:

Feel free to eat more than 20 pieces of pizza, or 9 inches:

Raist raistlin

More than 40 pieces of red wine to drink casually:

Raist raistlin

Is it cheap? It’s too cheap.

Even if you go through all the items on the menu, the price is affordable, which is only available in Saizeriya.

No wonder some people say that ordering food in Saizeriya is like going back to ten years ago.

Moreover, this price is not a noisy dining environment, but a moment of leisure.

With low price and good environment, it is simply a famous product in the catering industry, the gospel of the student party, and some people even commented that this western restaurant is either for making money or doing charity!

What Saizeriya? Let’s just call it the Virgin Mary.

2, so cheap, can it be delicious?

As the saying goes, cheap goods are not good.

This was put on Saizeriya, and knife elder brother disagreed.

If it’s just cheap, it won’t allow Saizeriya to expand more than 1,000 in the world. In the final analysis, it’s a price war, and customers pay for it, or it’s cost-effective.

Look at this material, which is also very abundant. Squid, shrimp and scallop can realize the freedom of seafood in minutes.

What kind of bicycle is needed at such a price with such ingredients?

There is a saying that Pisa Leah is not as cheap as it is delicious, and the price that is more delicious than it is very expensive. In the same gear, Saizeriya won completely.

Over the years, Saizeriya not only took a look on the Internet with the help of price circle powder, but also found that 80% of the consumers went for the taste of Saizeriya.

Anyone who has eaten Saizeriya later became the "tap water" of this western restaurant. No matter where he is, he misses Saizeriya’s mouth.

In particular, garlic snails and roasted vanilla five-eye intestines are simply classics in the classics, the childhood memories of countless people.

Cheap and delicious, just like the soul label of Saizeriya, it is firmly imprinted in customers’ minds.

But it’s hard not to guess, how did such a low price, coupled with real raw material processing, last for 47 years without going bankrupt?

This has to mention the story behind Saizeriya.

Saizeriya, is there a mine at home?

Many people don’t know that Saizeriya is actually a Japanese catering company.

The founder’s name is Masahiko Masahiro, who founded the Italian restaurant in Saizeriya in 1973. It is said that when the boss was in college, he vowed to open a cheap Italian restaurant chain, and his dream really came true.

▲ Masahiro Tahiko

The reason why it is so cheap has a lot to do with the founder.

1. Who said that delicious food should be expensive?

At that time, Saizeriya was just a small western-style restaurant with only 36 seats in Kawaguchi, Chiba Prefecture.

When Mr. Masahiro Takahiko inherited this restaurant, because it was located above the vegetable market, there were few visitors.

There are also a large number of vegetables piled up at the entrance of the ladder, which further affects the business of the restaurant. After he took over the restaurant, he made up his mind: "Anyway, I want customers to cross the mountains of vegetables and come upstairs for dinner."

Mr. zhengyuan thinks that the high price is the main reason for the decrease of guests, so he reduces the price of dishes to 70% of the original price.

This move has obviously led to the growth of restaurant performance, and even customers queue up.

After a long time, the low price of the restaurant he runs has become a signboard.

He was convinced that "really good things should be cheap and delicious."

Relying on the low price strategy, Saizeriya successfully opened the market.

2, for the sake of efficiency, the kitchen fights.

Generally speaking, the better an enterprise develops, the cost control will be neglected, but Saizeriya is not.

Knife elder brother felt that Saizeriya’s cost savings can be summarized in several points.

The first is laziness.

As an enterprise, Saizeriya is too lazy to cook without a kitchen knife.

Cooking by what? Central kitchen.

Pre-processing all dishes through the central kitchen, and then sending semi-finished products to nearby stores can reduce the time cost.

Moreover, the function of the chef is greatly reduced, and only trained employees can engage in standardized operations. Greatly reduced labor costs and saved time for customers.

It takes only 9 minutes and 58 seconds to process and serve on the spot and complete 15 dishes.

Even the site selection, Saizeriya is too lazy to choose the location, and he will choose the closed restaurant stores, decorate them casually, ensure cleanliness and comfort, and start business.

Followed by essence.

Saizeriya is responsible for the cultivation of ingredients, the production and processing, and the store cooking.

Therefore, it can be speculated that the overall model of Saizeriya is probably: the place of production is taken out-processed in the central kitchen-sent to the store.

What do you mean, fat water doesn’t flow from outsiders? This is it.

Finally, the province.

Saizeriya’s low price depends on everyone’s saving.

The Japanese once filmed a program to unveil Saizeriya’s low-priced The Secret Behind.

For example, mopping the floor, such a common and simple thing, is calculated by efficiency here in Saizeriya.

This mop is equipped with an automatic water dispenser, and water can flow out of the mop with a light press. One to two, save a lot of time to wash the mop! The compressed time is just enough to go to the kitchen to help.

There is also a lot of knowledge in the waiter’s service.

Saizeriya has done a special test, and it is much more efficient for employees to serve food with their hands than trays.

And the homemade tomato cutter, placed directly in the middle, can be cut neatly and beautifully in five seconds.

On the whole, Saizeriya’s process operation stunned other entrepreneurs.

And this is also the most powerful proof to keep the price low and ensure the quality.

In addition, Saizeriya has an indicator called "turnover per hour", which is the turnover realized by an employee in one hour.

Saizeriya attaches great importance to improving this index, because as soon as the "man-hour turnover" goes up, the number of customers handled by each employee will increase accordingly, and it can be maintained with less manpower.

It is worthy of being an Italian "Shaxian snack" that has stood for 47 years in a row. Not everyone can control the cost like this.

Because of this, Saizeriya has also been vomited by some diners.

Saizeriya, don’t be too happy.

Because of this processing method of pre-finished products, it is actually the operation of reheating quick-frozen products.

It is essentially impossible to adjust the taste of customers.

▲ After-kitchen pre-finished product processing

In other words, Saizeriya has been training customers to adapt themselves.

As a catering industry, consumers and businesses usually try to adjust their tastes to each other, but Saizeriya, like a love rat, is unwilling to make changes for each other.

One more thing, too few people know about Saizeriya. Because to save money, all kinds of endorsements and event marketing are not available. Therefore, residents of cities without Saizeriya have never heard of it.

These are knife elder brother’s worries. On the whole, Saizeriya’s advantages are still stronger than others.

In particular, compared with the restaurants in Babela, which used to compete with it, it has long declined, and some of them may have never heard of it after 00.

Babela is also an Italian restaurant opened in China. It was founded in Shanghai in 2005 and has more than 200 stores nationwide.

At that time, there was usually a long queue at the entrance of Babela!

But now it’s hard for you to find its store.

One of the main reasons for bankruptcy is that the eyes are superior and the eyes are inferior.

When there were a large number of customers, Babela was impatient and began to raise prices to highlight his own style.

However, because the food itself is a third-rate taste, we must position the price of Michelin for ourselves.

Customers are not fools, and they can choose Pizza Hut or other western restaurants at the same price. Over time, how Babela didn’t exist is almost forgotten by everyone.

This gave Saizeriya more room for development and made up for the shortage of this gear.

During the epidemic, Saizeriya opened three stores in succession, with a 50% discount. And it is planned to open 300 stores in Guangdong Province within five years.

Compared with other restaurants, Saizeriya is simply a mudslide, standing firm in the market at a low price.

Look at Yoshinoya, who couldn’t stand it before. He is also a Japanese chain restaurant with the same expansion model, but he closed hundreds of stores overnight and lost more than 600 million yuan.

The reason is the service retrogression. Inadequate staff training, casual ordering, slow serving speed, and decreased food quality, which is expensive and not delicious.

You see, once the service and quality cannot be guaranteed, even if you are famous again, you will be abandoned by the market.

Therefore, even in Saizeriya, which is famous for its cost performance, knife elder brother should give a vaccination. Don’t float, remember your initial heart.

References:

1. Wuxi Raiders: "It’s 0202, Wuxi is known as the" Shaxian County of Italy ",and the price still stayed ten years ago! ? 》

2. Eating goods in Guangzhou: "During the epidemic period, there is no price increase and there is a discount. Saizeriya, why don’t you go out of business?" ! 》

3. Why Shenzhen: "Why, Saizeriya has not closed down? ! 》

4. Shan Renxing, "Italian Shaxian snacks opened by the Japanese: thousands of stores around the world, making profits for 36 consecutive years! 》

5. Not related to the research institute "How did the Italian Shaxian snack opened by the Japanese conquer China?"

Original title: "Why hasn’t the most local western restaurant in China closed down? 》

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1905 movie network news On June 19th, the series "With the Phoenix" starring,, and, released the full-cast stills, and the characters’ stills were exposed. At the same time, the film also released a poster of "Fighting Will Rise". Kenny Lin wore a black shirt, holding an ice blade and his eyes were firm; Zhao Liying, dressed in black and gold armor and armed with a pike, was a pistol, and they stood with their backs against each other, full of momentum.

The play is adapted from the novel of the same name by Jiu Lu Fei Xiang (also named "The King is Here"), and tells the love story of King Bicang who was born with a pearl and the emperor. As the King of Bicang born in the underworld, Shen Li (played by Zhao Liying) has a bright and dazzling life, but on the occasion of her thousand-year-old birthday, the talons of political marriage are swept over. Shen Li escapes from marriage, and when she meets the God King (Kenny Lin), their fate is tightly twisted together.

It is reported that the specific broadcast time of the play has not yet been announced, so stay tuned!

Whether it is a fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, as long as it meets the needs of consumers, it is a good car. Some netizens left a message and wanted to see it. Today it came. The following small series will tell you in detail.

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This car performs well in terms of space and configuration. As for the design, everyone has everyone’s aesthetics. If you are planning to buy a car, then the car above is worth considering.

　　In order to promote the pilot project of mortgage loan for farmers’ housing property rights in accordance with the law, According to the spirit of "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Piloting the Management Right of Rural Contracted Land and Mortgage Loan for Farmers’ Housing Property Rights" (Guo Fa [2015] No.45) and "Decision of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) on authorizing the State Council to temporarily adjust and implement relevant laws and regulations in 232 pilot counties (cities, districts) such as Daxing District in Beijing and 59 pilot counties (cities, districts) such as Jixian County in Tianjin", The "Interim Measures" (Annex 1) and "List of pilot counties (cities, districts) for mortgage loans of farmers’ housing property rights" (Annex 2) are hereby printed and distributed to you, please conscientiously implement them according to the actual situation.

　　Annex: 1. Interim Measures for the Pilot Project of Mortgage Loan for Farmers’ Housing Property Rights

　　2. List of pilot counties (cities, districts) for mortgage loans of farmers’ housing property rights.

　　China people’s bank CBRC CIRC

　　Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Land and Resources, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development

　　March 15, 2016

　　Annex 1

　　Interim measures for the pilot project of mortgage loan for farmers’ housing property rights

　　Article 1 In order to promote the pilot project of mortgage loans for farmers’ housing property rights in accordance with the law, increase effective financial support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of borrowers, These measures are formulated in accordance with policies and regulations such as "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Piloting the Management Right of Rural Contracted Land and Mortgage Loan for Farmers’ Housing Property Rights" (Guo Fa [2015] No.45) and "Decision of the NPC Standing Committee on authorizing the State Council to temporarily adjust and implement relevant laws and regulations in 232 pilot counties (cities, districts) such as Daxing District in Beijing and 59 pilot counties (cities, districts) such as Jixian County in Tianjin.

　　Article 2 The term "mortgage loan for farmers’ housing property rights" as mentioned in these Measures refers to a loan that is issued by a banking financial institution (hereinafter referred to as the lender) to eligible farmers’ housing owners (hereinafter referred to as the borrower) with the farmers’ housing ownership and the right to use the homestead as collateral without changing the nature of the homestead ownership, and repays the principal and interest within the agreed period.

　　Article 3 The term "pilot areas" as mentioned in these Measures refers to the counties (cities, districts) explicitly authorized by the Decision of the NPC Standing Committee on authorizing the State Council to temporarily adjust and implement the relevant laws and regulations in the administrative areas of 232 pilot counties (cities, districts) such as Daxing District in Beijing and 59 pilot counties (cities, districts) such as Jixian County in Tianjin.

　　Article 4 Where a borrower applies for a loan with the ownership of farmers’ housing and the right to use the homestead as collateral, it shall meet the following conditions at the same time:

　　(1) Having full capacity for civil conduct and no bad credit record;

　　(two) there is no dispute about the ownership of the mortgaged house and the right to use the homestead, and it has the ownership certificate issued by the relevant government departments according to law, which is not included in the scope of land acquisition and demolition;

　　(3) The borrower shall have other long-term and stable living places except the peasant houses used for mortgage, and be able to provide relevant certification materials;

　　(four) the collective economic organization where it is located agrees in writing that the right to use the homestead shall be mortgaged and disposed of together with the farmers’ housing.

　　If the farmers’ houses are mortgaged, the written consent of other co-owners shall also be obtained.

　　Article 5 The mortgage loan of farmers’ housing property rights obtained by the borrower shall be given priority for legal purposes recognized by the lender, such as agricultural production and operation.

　　Article 6 The lender shall make overall consideration of the borrower’s credit status, loan demand and repayment ability, the ownership of the house used for mortgage and the value of the right to use the homestead, and reasonably and independently determine the mortgage rate and actual loan amount of the farmer’s housing property right mortgage loan. Lenders are encouraged to appropriately increase the loan mortgage rate for borrowers who are honest and trustworthy, supported by financial discount, agricultural insurance or farmers’ housing insurance.

　　Article 7 Lenders shall refer to the benchmark interest rate of the same period and grade published by the People’s Bank of China, and determine the interest rate of farmers’ housing property mortgage loan reasonably and independently in combination with the actual situation of borrowers.

　　Article 8 The lender shall reasonably and independently determine the loan term by taking into account the borrower’s age, loan amount, loan purpose, repayment ability and the conditions of farmers’ houses and homesteads used for mortgage.

　　Article 9 Lenders and borrowers can determine the value of house ownership and homestead use right fairly, justly and objectively by entrusting a third-party real estate appraisal agency for appraisal, self-appraisal by the lender or negotiation between the two parties.

　　Article 10 Lenders are encouraged to actively innovate credit products and service methods according to the needs of borrowers, simplify loan procedures, strengthen loan risk control, and comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of loan services. In addition to the loan interest rate agreed in the mortgage contract of farmers’ housing property rights, other borrowing costs shall not be increased in addition or in disguise.

　　Article 11 Both borrowers and lenders shall, according to the provisions of the pilot areas, handle mortgage registration of house ownership and homestead use right at the real estate registration institution determined by the government in the pilot areas.

　　Article 12 If the borrower fails to perform the due debts or needs to exercise the mortgage right according to the circumstances agreed by the borrower and the borrower, the lender shall, in combination with the actual situation in the pilot area, cooperate with the government of the pilot area to dispose of the collateral through loan restructuring, orderly settlement, real estate sale or auction, etc., and the proceeds from the disposal of the collateral shall be given priority by the lender. In principle, the transferee’s scope should be limited to the relevant laws and regulations and the scope stipulated by the State Council when selling or auctioning the mortgaged farmers’ houses.

　　Article 13 The governments in the pilot areas should accelerate the registration and certification of the investigation on the ownership of houses and the right to use homesteads within their administrative areas, and actively organize and do a good job in the formulation of benchmark land prices for collective construction land, value evaluation, collateral disposal mechanism and other supporting work.

　　Article 14 Governments in pilot areas are encouraged to set up risk compensation funds for farmers’ housing property mortgage loans, which are used to share loan losses caused by force majeure such as natural disasters and protect farmers’ basic housing rights and interests during the period of collateral disposal, or to give appropriate interest subsidies to farmers’ housing property mortgage loans according to local financial resources, so as to enhance lenders’ lending incentives.

　　Fifteenth pilot areas are encouraged to provide guarantees for farmers’ housing property rights mortgage loans through government guarantee companies.

　　Article 16 The branches of the People’s Bank of China in the pilot areas should increase the support for re-lending agriculture to lenders who have achieved good results in carrying out mortgage loans for farmers’ housing property rights.

　　Article 17 The banking supervision institution shall make overall research, reasonably determine the calculation rules and incentive policies on the risk weight, capital provision and loan classification of farmers’ housing property rights mortgage loans, and support financial institutions to carry out farmers’ housing property rights mortgage loans.

　　Eighteenth insurance supervision and management institutions should speed up the improvement of agricultural insurance and farmers’ housing insurance policies, and provide credit support for borrowers by exploring various ways such as developing farmers’ housing property rights mortgage loan guarantee insurance business.

　　Nineteenth pilot working groups in each pilot area should strengthen overall coordination, rely on the actual division of responsibilities, and do a solid job in organizing the implementation, follow-up guidance and summary evaluation of pilot organizations within their jurisdiction. During the pilot period, the provinces will form an annual pilot summary report at the end of each year, which should be sent to the pilot steering group in the name of the provincial people’s government before the end of January each year (postponed in case of holidays).

　　Article 20 Branches of the People’s Bank of China shall strengthen pilot monitoring, business guidance and evaluation summary together with banking supervision institutions and other departments. The pilot counties (cities, districts) shall submit quarterly summary reports and policy suggestions, which shall be summarized by the branches above the sub-provincial city center branch of the People’s Bank of China in conjunction with the banking regulatory bureau and submitted to the office of the pilot steering group within 20 working days after the season, and printed and sent to all members of the steering group.

　　Article 21 All banking financial institutions may, in accordance with the relevant provisions of these Measures, formulate the management system and detailed rules for the implementation of farmers’ housing property rights mortgage loans, and send a copy to the People’s Bank of China and banking supervision and management institutions.

　　Twenty-second for farmers’ housing property rights to provide guarantees for others’ loans, can be implemented with reference to these measures.

　　Article 23 These Measures shall be interpreted by the People’s Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the relevant member units of the pilot steering group.

　　Article 24 These Measures shall come into force as of the date of promulgation.

　　Annex 2

　　List of pilot counties (cities, districts) for mortgage loans of farmers’ housing property rights

　　

province

Pilot counties (cities, districts)

Tianjin

Jixian county

Shanxi province

Yuci District, Jinzhong City

Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Horinger County and Ulanhot City

Liaoning province

Tieling County, kaiyuan city

Jilin province

Jiutai District, Changchun City

Heilongjiang province

Lindian County, founder county County and Dumont County.

Jiangsu Province

Wujin District, Yizheng City and Sihong County, Changzhou City

Zhejiang Province

Yueqing, qingtian county, Yiwu and Ruian.

Anhui province

Jinzhai County, Xuanzhou District of Xuancheng City

Fujian Province

Jinjiang City, Gutian County, Shanghang County, shishi city

Jiangxi province

Yujiang county County, Huichang County and Wuyuan County.

Shandong Province

Feicheng City, Tengzhou City, Wenshang County

Henan Province

Hua county, lankao county.

Hubei province

Yicheng City and Jiangxia District of Wuhan City

Hunan province

Liuyang City, leiyang city, Mayang County

Guangdong Province

Wuhua County and Lianzhou City

　　

Guangxi autonomous region

Tianyang county

Hainan province

Wenchang City, Qiongzhong County

Chongqing

Jiangjin district, Kaixian and Youyang counties.

Sichuan Province

Luxian County and Pixian CountyPengshan District, Meishan City

Guizhou Province

Jinsha County and Meitan County

Yunnan Province

Dali City, Qiubei County and Wuding County

Xizang Autonomous Region

Qushui county

Shaanxi province

Pingli County, Gaoling District of Xi ‘an City

Gansu province

longxi county

Qinghai province

huangyuan county

Ningxia autonomous region

pingluo xian

Xinjiang autonomous region

Yining city

Although the upheaval in the Middle East continues, the "Arab Spring", which was full of passion and optimism, has been gradually replaced by pessimism, suspicion and anger, and even has the saying of "Arab Autumn" or "Arab Winter". It starts with a bang and ends with a scribble, which is a true portrayal of the chaos in the Middle East in the past year.

On December 17th, 2010, the self-immolation of a hawker in Tunisia triggered a "butterfly effect", which not only caused Ben Ali, who had been in power for 23 years, to step down, but also triggered an unprecedented political turmoil throughout West Asia and North Africa. Almost all Arab countries were involved in it, and several strongmen’s regimes that had been in power for decades were overthrown, and the turmoil has not been completely settled. So far, this vigorous political upheaval has been going on for a whole year, and people are still full of doubts about the related issues related to the upheaval in the Middle East, so it is necessary to make a comprehensive inventory.

The political ecology in the Middle East is beyond recognition, and different types of countries face different situations.

After experiencing the "Arab turmoil" like big waves, the political ecology in the Middle East has changed beyond recognition: Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and other countries have changed their dynasties, the Syrian Bashar regime is facing an unprecedented severe test, and the Gulf monarchy represented by Saudi Arabia is temporarily safe and sound. In countries where political upheaval has taken place, the intensity and intensity of the turmoil are also different: there has been no major bloodshed in the alternation of political power in Egypt, Tunisia and other countries; The regime change in Libya, Syria, Yemen and other countries has evolved into a full-scale armed conflict with heavy weapons, highlighting the true nature of jungle politics.

This raises a question, which type of country is most prone to turmoil, and what causes such a huge difference in the way of regime change? According to people’s general understanding, the more advanced the regime, the more stable the political situation should be. The Republic is obviously more advanced than the monarchy, so according to this logic, the former should be more stable than the latter. However, the reality of the turmoil in the Middle East is just the opposite. Up to now, the regime in the Middle East has basically collapsed or suffered a serious crisis, while Jordan and the Gulf monarchies, which implemented the traditional monarchy and were the least optimistic in advance, have survived safely to this day. Some people think that this is related to the wealth of the country, but this cannot explain why Libya, which is also a rich country, has political turmoil and even regime change, while the Gulf countries can survive; The same poor countries, why Egypt and Yemen are in serious turmoil, while Jordan is safe and sound. Therefore, it is obviously not enough to simply explain the turmoil in the Middle East from the perspective of people’s livelihood.

Which countries in the Middle East are more prone to turmoil is directly related to their internal social and political structures. On the surface, the regimes in the Middle East countries are divided into two categories: republic and monarchy, but there is not much difference between the two regimes in terms of actual governance. If we can see the essence through the phenomenon, we can find that there are actually three types of political ruling structures in Middle East countries, and the degree of turmoil in Middle East countries is directly related to this.

The first type is the isomorphic elite rule mode in which a few elites rule the majority of the people, such as Egypt and Tunisia.

Tribes/sects in such countries are not strong in color, and there is no difference between those in power and their powerful state departments and the people on the issue of identity and ownership. Therefore, the contradiction between those in power and the people in such countries is mainly class contradiction, and the nature of regime change in such countries is relatively simple. Although the confrontation is fierce, it is not a "zero-sum game" to the death. For example, after Egypt’s Mubarak mobilized troops to enter Cairo’s Tahrir Square, the protesters welcomed the troops, and the troops refused to shoot at the people. Mubarak felt that the general situation was over and took the initiative to resign, so that the regime change in the country was completed in a bloodless way. At the same time, the Republican system of government in these countries determines that the highest power of the country belongs to the state apparatus, and both those in power and the people recognize the fact that "family inheritance" is illegal from the bottom of their hearts, so such attempts by those in power can only be half-covered and half-covered, and they are often pushed down.

The second type is the alien elite rule mode in which minority tribes and sects are in power, such as Libya, Syria, Yemen and Iraq before.

The consciousness of tribes or sects in these countries is quite distinct, most of the people in power belong to a certain tribe or sect, and most of the members of their power core circle come from the same tribe or sect, and the policy of governance also gives priority to the interests of their own tribes and sects. For example, there are hundreds of tribes in Libya, and Gaddafi’s elite armed forces and even personal guards all come from their own Kadafa tribe, and the oil interests are mainly tilted towards this tribe. There are about 200 tribes in Yemen, mainly divided into four tribal alliances. Saleh has been able to sit on the presidency for more than 30 years precisely because he comes from the most powerful "Hashed" tribal alliance in Yemen.

This specific social and political structure makes those in power form a "concentric circle" sectarian tradition and the rules of the game. They are endlessly and unconditionally loyal to their own people, but have no sympathy for people and regions outside the tribe. They regard other tribes as their legitimate victims and can plunder or kill them at will. Reflected in real politics, it is that those in power tend to take high-handed measures against the opposition, rather than sit down and negotiate on an equal footing. In their minds, if the opposition is not suppressed, people will think that he is weak and will lose respect. This tribal opposition and violent tendency can well explain why seemingly normal political protests in these countries have rapidly evolved into deadly violent confrontation.

The third is the traditional elite rule mode, mainly hereditary monarchy countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco.

In terms of political structure, the rulers of these countries include all kinds of elites in traditional society. For example, Saudi Arabia is a political marriage between the Saudi royal family and Wahhabi Sect, and its members hold important positions in various government agencies, which makes the government have strong executive power. From the perspective of economic structure, most of these countries are rich oil-producing countries, and the source of their wealth is underground resources instead of taxing the people. On the contrary, the government has to provide various benefits to the people, thus forming a kind of "asylum system" rule. As the saying goes, "no taxes, no representation", the people do not have much confidence to demand more political rights. In addition, the founding of such countries is originally a "family rule" and hereditary rule. Therefore, if people want to rise up against such regimes, they often face the double obstacles of legalism and orthodoxy. In addition, these countries "turned over a new leaf" after this round of Middle East wave, vigorously promoted reforms, and even eased the antagonism of the domestic people.

To some extent, it is precisely because of the differences in social and political structure that different types of countries in the Middle East show different viability in the "Arab turmoil".

From "Arab Spring" to "Arab Autumn": Impact Assessment of Current Middle East Turbulence

Turbulence is widespread in the Middle East countries, which is largely due to the accumulation of internal disadvantages, and has reached the point where it is necessary to change. Therefore, the "Arab turmoil tide" is not only a strong resistance to the status quo, but also an element of exploring new ways for national prosperity. In this sense, this "Arab turmoil" can indeed be called the "Arab Spring".

However, over the past year or so of turmoil in the Middle East, the effect of this kind of political exploration is obviously not satisfactory. From an economic point of view, the turmoil in the Middle East has aggravated the economic recession of these countries and may lead them into a vicious circle. According to the report released by the International Monetary Fund in October, the drastic changes in the Middle East have caused at least $55 billion in economic losses to the affected countries. Among them, Libya and Syria were the hardest hit, followed by Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen. The GDP of these countries has decreased by at least $20.6 billion, and the fiscal balance has deteriorated. Libya suffered the most, and the country’s economic activities basically stopped, with a GDP loss of $7.7 billion and a national financial loss of $6.5 billion. In Egypt, public expenditure increased to $5.5 billion in the first nine months of 2011, while fiscal revenue decreased by $75 million. In Yemen, riots caused losses of $858 million to government finances. In Tunisia, 80% of enterprises in the country were hit by the turmoil, which led to a sharp rise in the number of unemployed people, and now it has exceeded 700,000. At the same time, prices in the country have soared and some necessities are in short supply. The economies of Tunisia, Egypt and other countries are very dependent on tourism, and the domestic political turmoil has made many tourist attractions inaccessible, which has made the economic situation worse.

In the political field, although many countries have completed regime change, the political situation is still a mess. In Tunisia, statistics show that since March this year, there have been an average of 110 to 150 demonstrations or sit-ins and 150 to 180 traffic blocking incidents nationwide. After the completion of the parliamentary election in October 2011, the power struggle among political parties became increasingly fierce, which forced the parliament, which was sworn in shortly, to adjourn. In Libya, armed forces of different factions stationed in the capital Tripoli have clashed from time to time. In Womis, southwest of Tripoli, since December 10th, the local armed forces of Zintan and the local Mashashiya tribe have exchanged fire for three consecutive days. On December 10, the convoy of the chief of staff of the Transitional Government Army was attacked in Tripoli, and some officials accused Zintan militants of trying to "assassinate". On December 12th, the largest demonstration broke out in Benghazi after Gaddafi’s downfall. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets and shouted slogans such as "The revolution started in Benghazi and resolutely defended the fruits of the revolution" to express their strong dissatisfaction, indignation and disappointment with the "Transitional Committee". In Egypt, since the military took over the state power, domestic demonstrations still broke out frequently, resulting in casualties. Protesters, represented by youth organizations, demanded that the military hand over power as soon as possible, and held demonstrations several times to brew a "second revolution."

Middle East countries are in a "painful period" of breaking the old and establishing the new.

Middle East countries are still in chaos, partly because these countries are in a "painful period" of breaking the old and establishing the new, and it takes time and patience to return to normal. But the more important reason is that the medicine is not symptomatic. Arab countries are suffering from a "decline syndrome". Lebanese scholar Antoine Mesala once said, "There is no Arab regime that has a serious minority problem and a serious majority problem". According to the author’s understanding, the so-called minority problem is actually due to the lack of democracy and freedom (specifically, the lack of "freedom" rather than "democracy"), resulting in the neglect of the legitimate rights and interests of the minority; The so-called majority problem is actually that a few powerful people oppress and extract the majority people, which leads to polarization between the rich and the poor, rampant corruption and increasingly prominent class contradictions. At present, the Arab people are protesting, mainly because they have not solved the "majority problem". Therefore, in order to get the country out of the predicament and get on the right track, we should first strengthen the "people’s nature" of the political power. In other words, the key to measure the success of a revolution is not what kind of regime is implemented, but which class will come to power in the future and what kind of ideology will be implemented, that is, "what flag to raise and what road to take."

However, after the current Arab upheaval, for various reasons, the successor obviously did not seriously think about these core issues. Moreover, because the Arab people are tired of the strongman politics that has been maintained for many years, just as the pendulum will inevitably move in the opposite direction after moving in one direction, the political transformation in the Middle East is developing towards decentralization and democratization. Indeed, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other countries have made political reconstruction schedules and started the process of "political democratization" after completing the "regime change". But obviously, democratization will not automatically solve the "majority problem" of the country.

In fact, as early as the 1920s, some Arab countries (such as Egypt and Jordan) had established parliamentary democracy to varying degrees (this period was called the "free Arab period"). But it turns out that this system can’t solve all kinds of deep-seated problems facing the country. These democracies, which are talked about by some people, are actually a huge "tofu dregs project". In fact, no country in the third world has achieved national prosperity by first realizing democratization. On the contrary, many countries have lost their effectiveness and have to rely on external powers after implementing democratization. Based on this, it is not difficult to understand why most Arab countries pursued military/strongman politics during the most prestigious period in the world in the 1950s and 1960s. Therefore, hastily starting democratization will only lead this magnificent political movement astray.

From a practical point of view, the final result of this democratization movement of "only asking for votes, not asking for opinions" is to make the political Islamic forces that have been dormant for many years become the biggest beneficiaries. In Tunisia, the Baath Movement Party won 89 of the 217 seats in the Constituent Assembly election on October 23, 2011, becoming the largest party in the Constituent Assembly; In the first stage of Egypt’s elections, Islamic parties, mainly the Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Bright Party of the Salafist faction, won more than 60% of the votes, while the secular Egyptian League and the veteran Waffle Party only won 20% of the votes; Morocco’s House of Representatives held an early general election on November 25th, and the moderate Islamic party Justice and Development Party won 107 of the 395 seats, far ahead of other political parties. When the Libyan transitional government was established on November 24th, its leaders also indicated that Islam would be the legislative basis in the future.

The reason why Islamic forces can gain power is not that they represent some advanced productive forces or advanced culture, but largely because these countries have practiced high-handed rule for many years and there is no political opposition in the modern sense, thus enabling religious forces like the Muslim Brotherhood to accumulate strength and grow stronger. Are these Islamic forces capable of leading the country out of the predicament? From the perspective of class attributes, although the Muslim Brotherhood claims to represent the middle and lower classes, its top level is almost all billionaires, so it is doubtful whether its future policies can truly represent the lower classes. From the ideological point of view, its leading ideology is Islamic doctrine, but it is difficult to provide effective guiding principles for national modernization; From a historical perspective, these political Islamic forces have always played the role of "opponents", and it is doubtful whether they can lead the country out of the predicament and embark on the road of prosperity. Therefore, although the democratization of these countries is in full swing, people in Egypt and other countries continue to protest and try to carry out the "second revolution". Obviously, they are dissatisfied with this solution and try to find a new way to break through.

Western intervention has changed the nature of the "Arab turmoil" and the road to Arab revival has become more difficult.

The turmoil in the Middle East was originally an endogenous turmoil, which was mainly caused by internal factors, and the focus of public protests was mainly aimed at domestic authorities. However, because most of the countries in turmoil are pro-Western countries, the turmoil in the Middle East has greatly impacted the vested interests of the West that have been maintained in the Middle East for many years. After a short period of hesitation and vacillation, western countries began to take the opportunity to reshape the Middle East order, turn unfavorable factors into favorable ones, and safeguard their own interests to the maximum extent. Obviously, the western intervention in the Middle East obviously pursues "multiple standards": trying to protect the current regime in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, encouraging and conniving the government to suppress popular protests; For Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and other countries that are in serious turmoil and the situation is difficult to clean up, they will make use of the situation and try to bring their future trends into the western track; For Libya, Syria, Iran and other countries that are anti-western or have a bad relationship with the West, it will add fuel to the flames and even directly carry out military strikes. However, the external interference by the west for selfish purposes has made the regional situation more complicated.

In particular, the Libyan war launched by NATO in March 2011 marked the beginning of the political struggle in the Middle East and entered a new stage of western military intervention and forced shaping of the regional pattern. On the surface, the war was authorized by the United Nations. In fact, it not only ignored the spirit of regional organizations in Resolution 1973, but also exceeded the stipulation that Resolution 1973 only authorized the establishment of a "no-fly zone". NATO claimed to "prevent a humanitarian disaster", but before Libya’s war, there were only a few hundred casualties in internal conflicts, and the situation has basically subsided. The indiscriminate bombing and the expansion of the war in the West caused more than 30,000 deaths and more than 50,000 injuries in Libya, and a large number of basic facilities were destroyed. Therefore, it is essentially an unjust war. The internal contradictions in Libya were far from the need to change the dynasty, but the western military intervention forcibly changed the original political process of the country, which plunged Libya from a stable and rich country with the highest living standard in Africa into chaos. The political situation in Libya in the post-Gaddafi era is likely to become a vassal of the West and a bridgehead for advancing into Africa.

What is particularly lamentable is that such an unjust war of the West against Arab countries has actually been actively endorsed by many Arab countries, and even directly participated in the "encirclement" of the Qaddafi regime. We should know that if the Arab world wants to achieve national rejuvenation and get rid of the vicious circle, it is the basic premise to achieve internal Arab unity. The performance of most Arab countries in the Libyan war shows that the Arab world is getting farther and farther away from realizing the dream of national rejuvenation. This seemingly massive upheaval in the Middle East will not make the countries in the region truly embark on the road of revival, but will still be the victims of the politics of western powers. Facts also show that after the successful intervention in Libya, the appetite and confidence of the West to transplant the "Libya model" in the region doubled. Therefore, just after the end of the Libyan war, the West began to step up pressure on Syria and Iran, which made the situation in Syria and Iraq increasingly tense. Syria is located in the heart of the Arab world, and once its situation gets out of control, it is likely to cause unexpected turmoil throughout the Middle East.

Sow the dragon seeds, but reap the fleas. The turbulent upheaval in the Middle East was originally a progressive movement with civil rights, people’s livelihood and nationality as its main demands, but the nature of this "Middle East Wave" has become increasingly stale due to the combined effects of various negative factors inside and outside. Although the upheaval in the Middle East continues, the "Arab Spring", which was full of passion and optimism, has been gradually replaced by pessimism, suspicion and anger, and even has the saying of "Arab Autumn" or "Arab Winter". It starts with a bang and ends with a scribble, which is a true portrayal of the chaos in the Middle East in the past year.