The United States will encourage Israel to attack Iran first to make excuses for its use of force.
The American B-1B strategic bomber is dropping bombs [data picture]
American AC-130 "night sky gunboat" special operations aircraft [data picture]
In the American foreign policy game in the first half of this year, the diplomatic efforts supported by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the Iranian nuclear issue had a certain advantage in the contest between the doves and hawks. However, the advantage of this diplomatic effort is now disappearing, and it is replaced by the tough stance of Vice President Cheney’s office to advocate military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Different from the hawkish stance, Rice advocated pushing the UN Security Council to pass the third round of economic sanctions against Iran, trying to force Iran to reach a compromise with the international community through diplomatic channels. Therefore, on the issue of military strikes against Iran, Rice advocates being cautious. They believe that the United Nations economic sanctions are working and the Iranian government is beginning to feel pain. But it will take at least 6-12 months for diplomatic efforts to succeed. On the 28th, Rice will also discuss with the foreign ministers of other permanent members of the Security Council the countermeasures to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. Last Friday, the United States also invited representatives of several permanent members of the Security Council to Washington to discuss how to take further economic sanctions against Iran within the framework of the United Nations.
However, Vice President Cheney’s office can’t wait, thinking that Iran’s nuclear ambitions can’t be contained through diplomatic means, and Iran is getting closer to possessing nuclear weapons. Therefore, Cheney’s office and its allies began to openly advocate tougher measures against Iran, including formulating policies to further isolate and contain Iran internationally, overthrowing Iran’s current regime and even carrying out surgical military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
T Palcy, chairman of the Iraq-US National Committee, believes that Cheney’s office is considering long-term strategic issues, which goes beyond counter-terrorism and nuclear issues. The reality is that America’s dominance in the Middle East is being challenged by Iran. Cheney’s office is worried that once Iran possesses nuclear weapons and is militarily large, and is rich in oil and gas resources, it will give orders in the Middle East and pose a great threat to American interests. Therefore, Cheney’s office advocates destroying Iran’s nuclear program and weakening Iran’s military strength through military strikes as soon as possible.
In order to convince other countries to stand on the side of the United States, in their recent speeches or in their Iraq reports to Congress, Bush and senior officials of the US government condemned Iran for causing troubles in Iraq and Afghanistan, and criticized Iran for providing military assistance, training and funding to anti-government forces in these countries, including providing anti-tank and anti-armored weapons, thus increasing the death toll of American troops. Palcy believes that half of the American troops killed in Iraq were killed by Saudi terrorists, but the United States is pointing its finger at Iran, creating an excuse for future military attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military targets.
Israeli Air Force F-16 fighter [data picture]
Israel Air Force F-15I fighter group [data picture]
On the issue of how to define economic sanctions against Iran, Cheney’s office and some political officials in the White House advocate that the entire Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran be designated as a terrorist organization, and then impose economic sanctions on all companies and organizations that maintain economic contacts with the Revolutionary Guard Corps and freeze all their bank accounts and other assets. However, the State Council and the Ministry of Finance, headed by Rice, advocated economic sanctions against the elite troops of the Revolutionary Guard, which should be small, but firm and accurate.
Considering the strategic interests of the United States, it is increasingly possible for the Bush administration to use force against Iran, because the United States never wants to see Iran possess nuclear weapons, and it is even more unwilling to see Iran use nuclear weapons to intimidate the United States and other countries in the future. However, due to the current anti-war sentiment of the American public, it is difficult for the Bush administration to get the support of Congress and the public for a military strike against Iran. Therefore, American conservatives secretly encouraged Israel to launch the first round of attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and then the United States used this as a reason for large-scale military intervention.
For Iran, possessing nuclear weapons is a national pride and a long-standing dream, and it will never yield to the pressure of the United States and the international community on the nuclear issue. For Ahmadinejad’s government, giving up halfway on the nuclear issue is tantamount to political surrender and will pay a great political price at home.
Therefore, if Iran can’t reach a compromise with the United States, the United Nations Security Council and the European Union countries on the nuclear issue, it will be a matter of time before the United States strikes Iraq militarily, perhaps no later than 2008. Cheney’s office is worried that the next administration of the United States may not be able to handle the Iranian nuclear issue, and Iran, which is getting closer to its nuclear goal, is even more reluctant to abandon its nuclear program. Therefore, it is better to do it late than early. (Wen Wei Po, Washington, September 17th/Zhu Xingfu)
Editor: Cao Jin